Under the Impact of the Emergency in Guinea, Imported Bauxite Ore Prices Stop Falling and Begin to Rebound [SMM Bauxite Weekly Review]

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SMM News on May 22:

Domestic Bauxite Market:

This week, the domestic bauxite market remained relatively calm, with stable operations prevailing.

As of today, in Shanxi, the transaction price for bauxite with an Al/Si ratio of 5.0 and 60% alumina content, excluding VAT, for self pick-up at the crushing plant, was approximately 580-620 yuan/mt. In Henan, the transaction price for bauxite with the same Al/Si ratio and alumina content, excluding VAT, for self pick-up at the crushing plant, was around 550-590 yuan/mt. In Guizhou, the transaction price for bauxite with an Al/Si ratio of 5.5 and 58% alumina content, excluding VAT, for self pick-up at the crushing plant, was 410-450 yuan/mt. In Guangxi, the transaction price for bauxite with an Al/Si ratio of 6.0 and 53% alumina content, excluding VAT, for self pick-up at the crushing plant, was 320-335 yuan/mt.

Imported Bauxite Market:

According to data from May 16, the total weekly bauxite arrivals at domestic ports were 3.7844 million mt, a decrease of 440,300 mt from the previous week. The total weekly bauxite port departures from main ports in Guinea were 3.5938 million mt, a decrease of 35,400 mt from the previous week. The total weekly bauxite port departures from main ports in Australia were 971,900 mt, an increase of 119,000 mt from the previous week.

Price Trends: Recently, the Guinea bauxite market has experienced significant fluctuations. Unexpected events have impacted the supply outlook for bauxite, causing bauxite prices to stop falling and begin to rebound. The specific timeline is as follows:

• On May 14 (Guinea time), the Guinean authorities ordered the revocation of industrial and semi-industrial mining licenses for over 40 mining companies, including "Axis Minérales."
• On May 16 (Beijing time), it was learned that the mining rights involved some projects that were actively mining and exporting bauxite. Relevant projects received notices to suspend production, involving significant capacity, which raised market concerns about the supply of bauxite raw materials.
• On May 17 (Guinea time), the Guinean Minister of Mines and Geology issued an order revoking licenses for over 100 additional mining companies, but this did not significantly impact other active bauxite enterprises.
• On May 19 (Beijing time), some companies that received suspension notices declared force majeure to shipping companies.
• On the evening of May 20 (Guinea time), in an order read on Guinean national television, the transitional authorities decided to classify several mining concessions as strategic reserve zones, including concessions, industrial and semi-industrial mining licenses, as well as exploration licenses for bauxite, iron, gold, diamonds, and graphite. "In accordance with the provisions of Decree No. D/2025-065/PRG-CNRD-SGG dated May 9, 2025, Decree No. D/2025-066/PRG-CNRD-SGG dated May 9, 2025, and Article 2 of Decree No. D/2025-067/PRG-CNRD-SGG dated May 14, 2025, the industrial and semi-industrial mining concessions and licenses for bauxite, iron, gold, diamonds, and graphite are revoked. In accordance with Article 5 of the Mining Code, the relevant concessions and licenses are now placed in strategic reserve zones."The decree states that the exploration licenses for bauxite, iron, gold, diamonds, base metals, gemstones, black sand, and manganese, which were revoked under Order A/2025-480/MMG-SGG dated May 16, 2025, are also classified as strategic reserve areas under Article 5 of the Mining Law.

This incident has sparked market concerns over the supply of bauxite raw materials, with low-priced offers disappearing from the market and a small number of offers hovering around $75/mt. On Thursday, it was inquired that the transaction price of Guinea bauxite had risen to around $74/mt, driving up the SMM imported bauxite prices in succession. As of Thursday this week, the SMM imported bauxite index was reported at $72.14/mt, up $1.73/mt from last Thursday; the Guinea bauxite price was reported at $72/mt, up $72/mt from last Thursday.

SMM Commentary: Due to the impact of the Guinea bauxite incident, Guinea bauxite prices have stopped falling and rebounded. In the short term, sellers are holding firm on their quotes, and prices are expected to maintain a slight upward trend. Continuous attention should be paid to the development of the Guinea incident for subsequent price changes.

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